Tuesday, February 27, 2018

Outlasting the Syrian War

How will end the Syrian civil war? After a decade of conflict, half of the population has abandoned their homes and lands and businesses, and the per capita product is about 3000 US$. The army of some 200,000 has suffered 40,000 casualties. Yet there is still a functioning government in Damascus.

In the North, confused fighting goes on with foreign troops on the land: Russians, Turks, Iraqis and Iranians. And the new Kurdish nation. And American "advisers". The question: Is this prolonged armed conflict weakening and emptying the Syrian State? Or the continued fighting is hardening and strengthening the Syrian Army? Is Syrian territory being divided up among fractions and lead to independent statelets?

According to military doctrine (Hoover Institute) the winners will be those who enter the war in its final phase, those with strong nerves that stayed on the sides while the others bleed themselves white. An impoverished nation cannot support for long a fighting army, a famished army fast degrades to bandits. The result in twenty years will be a wealthy, stable and strong Israel surrounded by exhausted, overpopulated and very poor nations. Pic.: a 9000 skeleton mass grave in Lutzen,from the German Thirty Years War.

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