Tuesday, November 24, 2020

The Unfinished Caucasus War

 The impossible geopolitical situation after the retirement of Armenian forces from Nagorno-Karabakh will certainly result in another war in the next ten years. Azerbaijan has no territorial continuity, and parts of it are still occupied by Armenia. The big powers like Russia and Turkey should let the war continue till a feasible geography was achieved, or a clear winner that can dictate its terms. Now we have an unresolved conflict, both parties will rearm and wait for the next opportunity to get even. 

This war resulted also in a triumph of Turkish and Israeli weapons. Turkey has grown into a serious industrial power. Under Biden, it is the regional hegemon. In a modest way, our products will be in demand. 

2 comments:

  1. "Turkey has grown into a serious industrial power."

    If we are talking about the military industry, then this is not an entirely true statement. The turkish drone industry is a very boutique and high-tech industry which rests almost entirely on one man, Seljuk Bayraktar, a PhD student from MIT in America, specializing in electronic navigation and satellite communications.

    But drones alone don't make an industry. In terms of armor, Turkey still has to import most of it. Like its frigates and tanks. Russia can produce its own, albeit inferior in quality to NATO armaments.

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    1. Depends how you define quality. Here in Israel the most popular heavy construction machinery is from Turkey, it costs half of European or Japanese equipment. And they are usable. Although the Chinese are replacing them.

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